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by Steve Garrison, Orcas Research Group
From 1950 through 1960, the population actually declined from 3,245 to 2, 872. The following decade there was an increase of about 1,000, and in the decade from 1970 through 1980, there was a 100% increase. This was followed by a 28% and then 40% increase the next two decades to bring us to slightly over 14,000 today. We are growing about as fast as Clark County, the number one region in the state, where there is obviously a much larger demand for employment and infrastructure to support these levels of growth. Our median age is now 47.4 years, up from about 42 a decade ago, and this compares with a median age of 35.3 for the US in general. The 35 – 44 age group has shown a big drop in the last decade, but nothing compared to the 20-24 age group that has actually declined 2.9 %, in real numbers, as compared to a 6.7% increase for the US as a whole. Single person households have increased from 27.2% to 30.6%, and today 14% of our population is living alone. Although the percentage of those 65 or older has fallen from 21.4% to 19% in the last decade, this may simply a factor of the large number of earlier retirees of the dot-com generation. The number is still considerably higher than the US average of 12%. The percent of families with children has dropped from 25.4% to 22.9% this last decade, supporting our concern about the declining population of those of childbearing age. On Orcas Island, public school enrollment has declined by 100 in the past four years to a projected 476 for the next school year. In grades K through 6th, enrollment has dropped from 264 in 1998 to 208 for year 2003. The number of home-schooled children has declined from 49 to 40 in the same period. We do not have the numbers for the Orcas Christian School but even with a 50% expansion in their K-6 program, Orcas Island in totality has experienced about a 20% drop in the number of elementary school children in the past four years. IncomeIn average per capita income, San Juan County is second in the state, but the bulk of such income is derived from dividends, investment income and rents. Investment income constitutes 49% of the county's total personal income, the highest percentage in the state. There is a strong bipolar distribution between income and wage levels. If only wages earned in the county are considered (investment income excluded), the average annual wage was $19,548 and ranked 38th among Washington's 39 counties in 1999. The services sector provided 22.7% of wages, with the government sector at 24.7%, retail trade at 15.5%, and construction at 14.4%. If we assume 10% for professional and other, then less than 15% of wages are earned from offshore employment or industry selling products or services on the mainland.Perhaps because of the difficulty of earning mainland wages, there is a substantial underground economy on the island. Many services provided to residential owners are paid in cash, and both services and goods are bartered to a much greater extent than might be found in a large urban environment. HousingAccompanying the 40% increase in population this last decade has been a 60% increase in housing units, from 6,075 units in 1990 to 9,752 in 2000. The number of these units occupied year-round increased by 47%. Interestingly, the percentage of these units occupied by renters declined from 28.1% to 26.5%. This may be due to escalating housing prices. The median price of all homes sold in the third quarter of 1999 was $241,000. Recent estimates of the median for single unit detached homes are now approximately $350,000. These prices probably make their sale a more profitable endeavor than maintaining them as rental units. However, a decline in rental units further limits available housing to those with low to moderate income.In San Juan County, the realistic price of a detached home in 1999 was $300,000. To afford such a home and assuming a 30-year loan, 10% down payment, 25% of income for principal and interest payments, the purchaser of such a home would have to be making $54,351. With average income only $ 19,548, it would require 66.2% of the income stream to afford this $300,000 home (or 33.1% for a family with two wage earners). At the time of the 1990 Census, an estimated 44.8% of the County's low- and moderate-income population paid more than 30% of their income for housing, indicating a severe problem of housing affordability. The relation of housing cost to income has grown worse in the County since 1990, and new census data is expected to show a worsening of the housing affordability problem. LandThe total number of parcels outside of urban areas (with state- and federal-owned lands removed) was 13,991 at the end of 2001. Considering only residentially developed non-urban parcels, the total number of non-urban parcels was 6,569 at the end of 2001. Rural and resource lands in San Juan County, minus state and federal lands, total 97,161 acres (110,204 - 13,043). In terms of existing densities in San Juan County, Assessor's data indicate that the average density of single-family residences in residentially developed areas designated San Juan County as "Rural" or "Resource" (excluding state & federal lands) in the county is 1 dwelling unit per 14.4 acres ( 97,161 acres per 6,761 units). Considering all parcels (both residentially developed parcels and parcels without residential development) in rural and resource lands (when state & federal parcels are removed: 14,150 - 159 = 13,991), the average parcel size is 6.9 acres (97,161 acres per 13,991 parcels). The difference in these averages reflects the large number of subdivided but undeveloped parcels in the county which constitute over half the total number of existing parcels. The 2000 Census (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000) reports that 28.5 percent of housing countywide is occupied only seasonally, recreationally or occasionally. The number of residentially developed parcels, when corrected by this factor to remove units that are occupied only seasonally, recreationally or occasionally is 4,697 parcels (6,569 x 0.715).CultureOver the past five years, wage growth stagnated, while the statewide average experienced significant sharp gains. Meanwhile, housing and rental prices increase anywhere from 5 to 15 percent annually. The county has much of its employment base in the tourism-related services and trade sectors. Because these sectors have many workers (combined, they account for over half of non-farm employment) and the pay is low relative to other sectors, the average wage for the county is quite low. There is a jarring disparity between the workers in these sectors who rely upon wages for their income and those (usually retirees) who receive a high level of investment income.An interesting report on socioeconomic impact was developed by the San Juan County Planning Department in May of 2000. The Department investigated areas that were similar to the San Juans in terms of the influx of wealthy retired individuals into areas of limited land and resources, and found economic similarities in Aspen, Colorado and Nantucket, Massachusetts. From these two areas, a pattern emerged wherein the wealthy purchasers of homes changed the character of the communities. Land values increased so that wage earners had declining choices of residence, increased property taxes forced fixed-income owners to sell property and a large percentage of rural and low-density land turned over to wealthy individuals. In those areas studied, local government staff, business owners and local interest groups now cite affordable housing as an area of prime concern. The Planning Staff's conclusion is that there is little that can be done to prevent the islands from duplicating these trends inasmuch as there is little that can be done to prevent the wealthy from buying privately owned rural lands. Additionally, the staff found that problems of affordable housing in the County will become much worse. They also concluded that downzoning will accelerate the growth of property values in rural lands, thereby potentially slowing population growth somewhat but not impacting the rate at which land is consumed for residential use.
The author of this study welcomes constructive criticism of this work. Please address correspondence to: garrison@rockisland.com. |